Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Luck Versus Probability

There are two forms of luck, good luck and bad luck. I'm highly pessimistic myself, so any good luck coming my way is basically a pleasant surprise. I'm always trying to prepare for bad luck, acknowledging worst case scenarios is important for me even if they aren't likely to happen. All luck is - is probability.

Probability is just the sum of logical rules and possibilities. When calculating a probability you must take everything into consideration - a coin can land sideways as well. There are often good explanations why luck happens the way it does, it's a big maze of actions forming more actions.

Simple good luck scenario: someone might buy something for a normal price, find out that he/she doesn't like it after a while, put it on sale with cheap price and you happen to find the offer somewhere. The good luck here being; he/she is selling something you want, for a cheaper price than normal, and you manage to find the offer.

Simple bad luck scenario: someone is ill and has an infectious disease, you interact a lot with the person and you too get contaminated. You could have prevented the chance of getting ill if you had known to avoid the ill person, but the bad luck played a big role here; you didn't know there was someone that is ill and the ill person was stupid for going out while being ill in the first place.

The odds build up on both ends, you just have to be aware of your surroundings and you can affect your luck's course.

Maybe luck is just a myth.

1 comment:

  1. What if the ill person had no symptoms? :)

    Also, I think you have a grudge against the person who gave you a cold :D

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